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THE POLITICAL SITUATION. I

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THE POLITICAL SITUATION. I WHERE WE STAND IX WEST WALES. I The position of affairs locally has during the last few days taken yet another turn. First came tho retirement of Mr. J. Lloyd -Alorgaii, K.C., M.P. for West Carmarthenshire; then the an- nouncement that Sir Owen Philipps would not fieek re-election and, lastly, that Mr. Llewelyn Williams will be allowed a walk over .Another surprise is the appearance of a I abour candidate in East Carmarthenshire in the person of Dr. H. Williams, of Burry Port, who is the nominee of the local I.L.P. Mv. Meryyn Peel will again champion the Unionist cause in that division, but it is somewhat doubtful whether Mr. Abel Thomas, K.C., the present member, will goto the poll. At the last election, it will be remembered, he intimated that it was not his intention to seek re-election. Of course, under pressure, he may consent to once more enter the political arena.. ) WEST CARMARTHEN SHIRE. I In West Carmarthenshire speculation is rife I with regard to i he probable successor to Mr. Lloyd Morgan, K.C. Daily, It might almost be said, fresh names are mentioned n connection with the vacancy but it will not be till Wednes- day. and probably Saturday, that a selection will be-made. The Liberal Executive met on Wed- nesday at W ater Sle-et Chapel. Au event regarded with no little significance, not to mention surprise, is the resignation of Sir Owen Philiops, the member for the Pembroke Boroughs, between whom and Mr. John Hinds, of Blackheath it is generally believed the choice lies. Sir Owen has umloubtedly inspirations for the seat, for it has been recently announced that h*- intends to take up his residence within the con- stituency—at Coombe Mansinn. the birth-place fJf Lady Philipps. The probable candidates up to the present are:- Sir Ove:i Philipps, M. P. for Pembroke Bor- oughs. i,(- k lieatli. Blackheath, Sir Courtney Mansel, Maesyerugiau Manor. The Rev. A. Fuller Mills, the Chairman of the Carmarthenshire County Council. Mr. E. Griffiths, Chelsea. Mr. Henry Jones-Davies. Glyneiddan. Mr. Timothy Davies. ex-M.P. for Firiham. Mr. Merlyn Jones, barrister, London. Mr. Sydenham Jones, barrister. London. Rev. J. Morgan Gibbon, London, a member of the Welsh Royal Commission. Mr. J. W. Jones Cremlyn, the Conservative candidate, will probably open his campaign at Kidwelly next Friday, the 2oth inst.. EAST CARMARTHENSHIRE. Provided Mr. Abel Thomas. K.C., consents to stand there is the prospect of a three-cornered fight in the Eastern portion of the county, where the candidates, in addition to the Liberal mem- ber, are Mr. Mervyn Peel, of Danyrallt (Unionist) and Dr. J. H. Williams, of Snowdon House. Burry Port (Labour). Though Mr. Peel has not made his final decision yet, it is almost sure he will again contest the division. His answer will be given on Wednesday, 23rd inst.. at a meeting of the East Carmarthenshire Conservative and Unionist Association, to be held at the Cawdor Arms Hotel. Llandilo. Dr. Williams. the Labour nominee, is well known in the constituency, and t has been identified with the Socialistic movement for many years. In addition he is chairman of the local Urban District Council. PEMBROKE BOROUGHS. The Libei: ot tha Pembroke Borough* are at present without a candidate to oppose Mr. Lort Philipps, the Conservative candidate. The re tirement of Sir Owen Philipps, which was an- nounced last Monday, occasioned no small amount of surprise, and the local executive mus.t look elsewhere. In a letter addressed to the Chairman of the Pembroke and Haverfordwest Boroughs Liberal Association Sir Owen wrote:— 76, Eaton Square, S.W.. Nov. 19. 1910. Dear Dr. Griffith,-I desire to thank you and all my friends in Pembroke and Haverfordwest for their kindness to me since I ha.ve represented the united boroughs in Pafliament 1 deeply ap- i preoiate the. great honour done to me when on each occasion T w asreturned by a. far larger majority than had ever previously been recorded, in favour of any member of Parliament for the constituency and I, therefof4, much regret that I do not see my way to offer myself for re-election at the coming general election. Again thanking you and all my, friends f(tr their very kind sup- port. Believe me, yours very truly. OWEN PHILLIPS. We have just learnt, however, that Major Guest ihe present member for East Dorset has arrived in the constituency, and will be adopted by the Liberal Association at a meeting to be held at Pembroke Dock At the Liberal Club, Pembroke Dock, on Wed- nesday, when Major Guest, M.P., for East Dor- set, was unanimously adopted as Liberal candi- j date for the Pembroke and Haverfordwest Bor- oughs, there was a large attendance of delegates, all the associated towns being well represented. Sir Owen Philipps's lesignation was accepted, and the meeting then considered the candidatures of Mr. Egerton Allen, Tenby, an ex-M.P. for Pembroke Boroughs, and Major Guest. Both candidates addressed the delegates. Mr. Allen said that if selected to fight their battle he would support Mr. Asquith's Veto pro- posals, this being the only question at present rl_for.,e the country. Major Guest said the time had pome when, 111 the interest of democratic progress, the relations between the two Houses should be adjusted. It was necessary that tha House of Commons should become predominant in legislation. The main ten am'e of Free Trade he regarded as vital, and it, was his 'opinion--a.nd he had travelled much-- that disturbances on the Continent were due to heavy taxes on foodstuffs. The relations between Emgland and Ireland were very different no v fiom what they "ere 25 years ago, and the time had come for lieland to manage purely Irish affairs He was also in favour of devolution for Wales and Scotland, and Welsh Disf stablishment. He should support the Government in an efficient Navy, because on the Navy was built i.p -JUT- national welfare and prosperity. Speaking as a soldier, he said it was widely recognised in milit- a.ry circles that the Army was in far better condi- tion now than wIpu the Tory Government was in office. Mr. Wm. Jones, M.P.. made a fighting speech, and Mr Egerton Allen promised to work heartily for Major Guest's return. The Rev. Towyn Jones, Liberal agent for East Carmarthenshire, states that Mr. Abel Thomas. K.C., M.P., who has represented this const: ru- eiicy for some 20 years, will again seek re-election. ,-He will address a meeting next Saturday at Am manford. An Executive meeting of the Carmarthenshire Conservative Association was held at the Cawdor Arms Hotel. Llandilo. on Wednesday afternoon. The meeting had been convened for the purpose of receiving the reply of Mr. Mervyn Peel, who had again been invited to contest East Carmar- thenshire in the Conservative interest at the forthcoming election. Mr. Peel consented to again become a candidate. PEMBROKESHIRE. I Mr. Marlay Samson, the Lntcnist candidate, w? forA?Ily adopted at a meeting held at Haver- fordv.f%t h?:: Snturd'i? in opposition t? the pre- I sent meinoer, Mr. Walter Hoch. There is a I rumour, however, to the effect that the latter will not seek re-election. In the event of a vacancy Mr. E. D. Jones, of Fishguard, would no doubt I be adopted. WHAT THE AGENTS THINK. 1 Mr. H. J. Stokes, the Conservative agent for West Carmarthenshire, was interviewed by one of our representatives upon his return from Not- tingham, where he and Mr. J. W. Jones Cremlyn, the candidate, had been to. attend the series of meetings organised by the National Union of Conservative Associations. With regard to the state of things in the local constituency Mr. j Stokes declared that not since the seat was con- tested by the late Mr. W. J. Buckley, about 17 years ago, has there been so much political activ- ity in West Carmarthenshire as during the pre- sent year. Following on the last;, election," he explained, a separate Unionist Association was formed for the constituency, and Mr .J. W. J. Cremlyn was unanimously invited to become the prospective candidate. Having accepted, lie never took his shoulder from the wheel; at Easter time lie conducted a lengthy campaign in the divi- sion, addressing some 30 meetings. Again in October he prosecuted a vigorous campaign for five weeks, covering practically the whole of the constituency. A fortnight later Mr. Vernon Wil- kins, of the National Union, conducted a series of meetings in those districts where Mr. Cremlyn had been unable to visit. This educative work, added the speaker, must prove of great value in the campaign, which will probably be started to- day ?Friday)." • s i tu.)- "Of cou rs. Mr. Stokes went on. the si tua- tion has altered considerably since last year, when on the eve of the election Mr .Cremlyn came down, an utter stranger to the constituency. He, however, lert no stone unturned to put up a big light-, which, under all the circumstances was readily admitted to be a brave one. But this is all changed now. There is no name better known now in West Carmarthenshire than that of Mr. Cremlyn. He is a convincing speaker, a. fajr fighter, a sportsman who never hits below the belt, and treats his opponents with a courtesy and fairness which has won for him the admira.- tion not only of his supporters, but of his oppon- PiltS. In regard to the change in the outlook in AYesc t Carmarthenshire Alr. Stokes referred to the re- j tirement of Mr. John Lloyd Morgan, K.C., who, he averred was the itvst formidable candidate that the Liberal Party could run. But he was not an aggressive politician, and was most fair in all his doings. The Unionist Party never forgot the stand he made against the Welsh revolt. His re- tirement will mean the gain of a large numger of I 1 additional supporters for Mr. Cremlyn. for the retiring member had undoubtedly a large number of Conservative friends, who voted for him on personal ground's. But whoever his opponent may be, I have no doubt he will make a very good fight I With a policy which stands for better conditions ) for the working man, the improvement and al- j lc via tion of the depression in agriculture by the adoption of a commonsense fisea.l rrangemen, the granting of small ownerships in place of small tenancies, and the reform of the House of Lords on the lines suggested by Mr. Balfour, if the vot- ers with a due sense of the responsibilities or the franchise only do their duty, and do not give un- due regard to Church and Chapel, then his hard work of the present year should bear the fruits of victory. Mr: Cremlyn, sacriifcing himself in order to undertake the Unionist battle in West Carmarthenshire, has refused invitations to stand for several English constituencies, in Lon- don and outside, one of which was practically a r certainty. The LnHHlIst party in "est CHmar-  thenshire acknowledge their gratitude bo him for deriding to stick to them in spite of the tremen- doiss pressure bi-,o-iglit upon Jiim to break away. Owing to the severe operation which Mrs. Cram- lyn recently underwent, she will be unable to as- sist her husband, having been ordered a complete rest. Mr. Antlwnv Thomas, Liberal agent for West Carmarthenshire, spoke with conifdence. He de. clared that the Liberal Association for West Car- marthenshire was very active, every parish hav- ing been organised. In answer to our query about the meeting of delegates, 200 of whom would no doubt be pre- sent. Mr. Thomas said they would probably re- duce the number to three, and then make the final selection next Saturday, 25th inst. The Liberal outlook in the Borough," said Mr Pryse Williams, the Liberal agent, is very en- couraging. Mr Llewelyn Williams will be nom- inated on Friday evening at Llanellv at the meet- ing of the joint executives of Carmarthen and Llanelly. There seems to be no talk of an oppon ent, but if it comes to a fight the party will be able to give a good account of themselves, and contribute to the increased majority which Mr. Llewelyn Williams would doubtless obtain. The Carmarthen Executive, recently elected, are thor- oughly representative of every shade of Liberal opinion in the borough, and the organisation is good, having been kept in working order by the County Council elections and municipal by-elec- tions which have taken place within the past year. Wales has not many seats to win, but a great effort will be made to get back Denbigh Boroughs, in spite of its Conservative history, and in Mr. Caradoc Rees. a barrister of Nonconformist stock, a candidate has been found acceptable to every section of Liberalism in those Boroughs. The Liberal Party has never gone to the poll with better prospects. The issue is clr and simple, and will req lire something more than American dollar talk to confuse it, and for progressive Wales the realisation of her most cherished ambitions rests upon the result. That is why the finest note in this campaign will be sounded by a Welshman in the person of Mr. Lloyd George. With regard to the situation in the Boroughs Mr. Pryse Williams said he was doubtful whether here would be a contest. There appears," he concluded, some difficulty in getting a Conser- vative candidate, for Lord Tiverton's experience of the last election apparently does not induce him to repeat the experiment here." LOCAL VIEWS ON THE CRISIS. I Pei-.sonatly 1 must confess that the present political situation is very complex," said the Rev. A. Fuller Mills to a Welshman." representa- tive. ri,ei-e s an air of mystery surrounding it. We expect, as a matter of course, the Cabinet or leaders of every Government to have iAd hold always certain secret reasons which it cannot divulge to the lommon ear for many of its courses of action. In the present case of the sud- den Dissolution of a Parliament which has not been in existance for one year, I must believe that this Cabinet have reasons very strong and very urgent for their action, though I cannot see them. Unless they have been driven to it by dire necessity, there is no justification for plung- ing the country into the maelstrom of a general election. "If the Conservative representatives in the ive repi 1 ile Conference were as amenable to reason, and as desirous of a rational reform of tha House of Lords as they have appeared since the breaking j up of that conference, I cannot understand why a via. media was not found. ff there was trick; ness, then it is full time for the electorate to show both sides that such moves'must come to an end. I am one of those who believe that the time is inopportune, and that in larger tov ns and cities business will suffer, and the Liberal partv will not gain by it. When the new Parliament is returned the position will be in statu quo. How- ever, we must accept the inevitable, concluded the rev. gentleman, and throw ourselves into the figilt as heretofore, and seek to extricate our beloved country from a mysterious puss and peril- ous moment." In a. short talk with one of our representatives Professor Jones, of Carmarthen, said the election would be fought indirectly on the Disestablish- ment question, but directly on the curt-ailment of the vote of the House of Lords. Of course Wabs ht. proceeded, is by this time convinced that the voice of the people will have no really practical effect until t.he veto has been done away with. cr at any rate curtailed. The Professor added that ''Down with the Lords would be the great cry, for with the House of lords supreme the question of Disestablishment would remain where it ws For forty years eigthy per oent .of the Welsh members returned to Parliament were pledged to Disestablishment, but they weie stil! in the same position, and would remain so until the veto of the House of Lords was done away with, or, at any rate curtailed. It will then be a case of Church v. Chapel?" remarked our representative. Yes. almost." replied the Professor. WILL THE CHRISTMAS TRADE SUFEFR. I itli regard to the possible interference of a General Election with the Christmas trade, the ex-Mavor, Mr. Walter Lloyd, said he did not think it would much matter in Carmarthen whether it came before or after. It was in the- large towns, he added, where the election might act reciprocally to the Christmas business Mr. John Crossman, merchant,'declared that lie did not think for one moment that the election would militate against the Christmas trade. People would not go without their turkey or their goose and other good things even for a general election. The children would not be allowed to suffer either. Then, again, if one needed, say, an overcoat he did not put it off until Christmas J before he bought it. If the election, however, fell at the close of the autumn, then, Mr. Cross I man concluded, perhaps trade might suffer. Mr. Evan Morris, outfitter, of Lammas Street, i expressed similar views. December, he stateet, was not the best month for business in a town like Carmarthen. Mr. Jack Francis ,of the firm of Messis -Francis and Sons. auctioneers, remarked that ail election 1 was a. sore to auctioneers, no matter what tine of the year it came. It was like taking a pill— the sooner ov.er the better. i The Mayor, Mr. Wm. Thomas, said that an election, whenever it came off. considerably inter- fered with trade of all classes, and paiticuhirly before Christmas, when trade was UoU idy at its best. The effects of it, he declared, could al ready be felt Mr. Harries, of Towy Works, said the sooner the election was over the better, especially see ing that the country was in the stite it was at t!.e present time. "It might," lIe added. in- tei-fere with the fancy trade, but not. with ours. Mr. Henry Thomas, of the,»Empormm did not consider it would interfre with the trà le much, it any. THE PROBABLE CANDIDA!ES The under-mentioned are the --s ir, the Soutu Wales constituencies:— CARMARTHEN BOROUGHS LI. Williams (L.) • CARMARTHEN, WEST— J. W. J. Cremlyn (U.) John Hinds, Blackheath (L.) CARMARTHEN EAST- Abel Thomas, K.C. (L.) Dr J. H. Williams (Lab.) Mervyn Peel (U.), probable. PEMBROKE BOROCGHS- Lmt Phillips (17.) Major Guest (L.) PEMB ROKESm R E- Marlav Samson (U.) W. F.#Roch (L.) CAR DIGANSHIRE— Vaughan Davies (L.) -B It ECON SHIRE.- i J. Conway Lloyd .) Sidney Robinson (L.) RADNOR- C. Venables Llewelyn (U.) I CARDIFF— Lord Ninian Stuart (U.) Sir Clarendon Hyde (L.) SWANSEA TOWN- Sir Alfred Mond (L.) Villiers Meagre (U.) SWANSEA DISTRICT— Sir D. Brynmor Jones, K.C. (L.) MERTHYR BOROUGHS— Edgar Jones (L.) J. Keir Hardie (Lab.) GLAMORGAN EAST- Frank H. Gaskell (U.) Clem. Edw ards (L.) C. B. Stanton (Lab.) GLAMORGAN SOUTH— Lewis Morgan (U.) Wm. Brace (Lab.) GLAMORGAN MID- Vernon Hartshorn (Lab.) GLAMOROAN*. R HONDDA — Harold Lloyd (U.) William Abraham (Lab.) MONMOUTH POROUGHSb G. P. Hargreaves (U.) Lewis Haslain (L.) MONMOUTH, NORTH— Col. D. E. Williams (C.) R. McKenna (L.) IXMOUTH SOUTH- L. Forestier Walker (U.) L Sir Ivor Herirert (L.) '[ON-A,tOUTH WES r- T, Richards (Lab.) Sir Geo. Armstrong, until recently the Union- ist candidate for the Pembroke Boreughy. has been adopted tor Southampton. Mr .Timothy Davies. a Cam arthenshire man, will probably stand in the Liberal interests fOJ the South Division of Lincolnshire Mr. Villiers Meager, barrister, who is often at the Carmarthenshire Quarter Sessions, has been adopted by the Conservatives t(-- oppose Sir Alfred Mond, the present member for Swansea. Dr. J .H. Williams the Labour candidate for East Carmarthenshire, is a brother-in-law of Mr Price, of Carmarthen The electioneering campaign in West Carmar- thenshire has commenced. Mr. Jones Cremlyn (L.) will address a. meeting at Kidwelly this (Fri- day) night at 8 p.m. It appears that Mr. Hinds (L.), -who is at present in Carmarthen, has to re- turn to London, and will not be able to hold meet- ings for at least a week to come Mr. C. W .R Stokes, of Tenby, has been ap- oointed election agent to Mr. Lort Phillips, ?L,, Conservative, (andidate for Pembroke Boroughs. Mr. Stokes has had an experience of electioneer- ing. both Parliamentary and nnmieipal.

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