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WHAT THE WAR WILL HAVE DONE FOR COMMERCE. Should peace be restored upon anything like the terms asserted to have been proposed to Russia, in what state would it leave us? What would be the effect of the war upon the commerce of the world ? We believe that it would be far from null tint if Russia were made to give the guarantees indicated by the reported terms of peace, the commercial world would be in a. much better position than it was three years ago, when the war commenced. The "blighting influence," which had been extending over new lands continually, North and South, would be not only checked but driven back. It will almost suffice for understanding the effect of checking Russia, to remember the effect of her influence. She has been described by her friends as a power encouraging commerce and so she did, after her fashion. Some years back, Mr. Cobden, in his England, Ireland, and Amvrica, quoted a table showing that British exports to Russia in- creased from E60,000 in 1700 to £ 2,300,000 in 1820, while the exports to Turkey had only increased from £ 220,000 to £ 800,000. But this report, written in 183-1, only came down to 1820 and Mr Cohden might even then have shown a considerably different case. The exports to Russia fell from £ 2,300,000 in 1S20 to £ 1,4S9,000, while the exports to Turkey continued to advance from £ 800,000 to £ 1,2-59,000. The progress has suUsecjuontly presented a still strrms<?r contrast. Our exports to Turkey, £ 3,438,000 in 1853, have more than equalled our exports to Russia and Austria put together. It has been said, indeed, that those exports are not to Turkey, but through Turkey to other places: which only proves that the influence of the Ottoman empire en- I courages a commerce that the empire itself is incapable of sustaining. With Russia the case is exactly opposite. Early in the century, the Czar v. as exciting himself to foster the commerce of Taganrog and Odessa; they were to be the great ports of departure for the produce of the Don and the Danube, as Riga was to be the great port of de- parture for timber, tallow, and other raw produce of the North. The Czar saw the advantage of trade, but it was to be the trade that he dictated, flowing in the channels that he dictated. He had caught the rud a idea that the wealth of a nation is exclusively or chiefly promoted by its exports and the maximum of export with the minimum of imnort was the objec'. The import-trade of the ISlack Sea and the Sea of Azoff rose from 10,000,000 roubles in 1821 to 19,030,000 in 1832 the export-trade, from 18,327,000 in 1821 to 30,934,000 in 1833. Russia was to give to the world such commerce as Caesar pleased but commerce will not exist or grow on such terms. Turkey maintained the Danube free, while Russia suffered it to be choked up with mud; and the diplomacy exploded by the war aided Russia. As Lord Aberdeen observed 0:1 the settlement of 1829, the effect of the stipulations respecting the islands of the Danube must be to place the control of navigation and commerce of that river exclusively in the hands of Russia," who would allow the world such commerce as she pleased but not such commerce as the world desired to have. Take the ense of a single port. Turkey would im- pose no obstacles to our seeking the commerce of lledout- Kaleh; but Russia does. In consequence of complaints of Russian merchants, who urged that foreigners enjoyed undue advantages in importing goods at lledout-Kaleh, an ukase was issued in 1831 to trammel the Transcaucasian trade, the effect of which was to ruin the commerce of Re- dout-Kaleh. It extended the Russian tariff of prohibitions and high duties on almost every article imported into Mingrelia and Georgia. At Souchum-Kaleh theTrebizond Turks had pushed an active barter, until they were arrested —if they were quite arrested—by the Russian gun-boats cruising between the forts of Circassia and suppressing trade lest trade should strengthen their enemy. It was not the mud alone that arrested the commerce of the Danube Russia imposed innumerable charges and consular fees at the port of shipment-charges for Beal, coverings, &c., besides forty days' quarantine at the port of arrival. In short, the policy of Russia, with respect to commerce, as with respect to politics, was suppression. The war has shaken off this blighting influence. It has abolished gun-boats from the coast of Circassia it has taken the mouth of the Danube from Russia; it has put down her right of transit-dues, consular charges, &0.; it has emancipated the mack Sea. But the effect wiflnot c effect, N,;i l ilot only be to place us where we were years ago, with simple emancipation there have been great alterations even within the last few yea s. Hungary, so large a portion of whose trade ought to have come down the Danube if it had not been arrested by Russia, has undergone many changes, t-.vo of which will suffice to show how much productive power now exists to be called forth her villein tenures have been com- muted, railways have been introduced. The Turkish pro- vinces bordering on the Danube have displayed improve- ment, even to the eye, from the industry and enterprise of the inhabitants, before the highway was fully opened to them it is henceforth opened, and the left bank is placed on a level commercially with the right bank. The Black Sea is emancipated from a piratical tyrant, at a time when war has brought with it a great amount of enterprise, of visiting, and of interest attaching to the whole seaboard of the Black Sea. Turkey, who has contracted her first, loan, has been fairly introduced into thcliuropean system, and has had her free trade tendenci_ es confirmed. These changes have been in great part completed in the interval since the Western Powers challenged the blighting influ- ence and undertook its removal. In the North, the favour- able changes are not so -,reat, but they are still considerable, and the interests with which we haH to deal in that region are on a larger scale. Commcrce and politics are as much mixed in the Baltic as in the Black Sea. Russia has ma- naged her marine, her customs, and her encroachments, with a view to her one rude object —territorial nKgrandis^- ment. She has recently been detected, it is said, in a new scheme for obtaining possession of Finmark, with a port in the North Sea, and of a marine population. Sweden has long enjoyed a rude commerce: its woods, mines, and fisheries, used until the last quarter of a century to be dis- tinguished by energy, activity, and development. But many tigns have recently been noticed that the Swedes arc degenerating under the overawing 'shadow which Russia casts across the Baltic. Her coastmen are indolent: they will strike work after a couple of days' exertion, and enjoy themselves on the wages which they can snatch by a hasty employment, instead of labouring to get out of opportu- nity all that it can yield. Even already Russian supremacy in the Baltic has been checked. The other Baltic states can no longer fear to exercise their own energies and activity. Perhaps, however, the most important result,; to the North will be the enduring influence of the check upon the proceedings of a body which is not Russian. The Zollverein of Prussia is quite as much political as commer- cial its object was to consolidate the material interests of several German states, in order that Prussia might have them pledged to itself as their centre and sovereign. While Russia has been maintaining the anti-commercial in- terest in the Baltic, her grand commercial agent was Prussia, chief of the Zollverein. We have seen how Prussia has managed to use her intermediate position in order to make a profit out of a contraband trade. To a certain extent she has always done so, being the intermedi- ary between the commerce of the West and anti-commer- cial Russia. Now, should the Baltic be thrown open- should Denmark be induced to make a sale of her Sound dues, as probably she will-the position of the Prussian Zollvc-rein would be turned; and a more active commerce would impart a practical lesson to the Northern States, that profit is to be made rather by pushing trade than by re- straining it. And the most formidable because the most moderate of anti-frec-trade organisations would be neu- tralised. As the conflict has not been so positive in the Baltic, the results cannot be so positive but we may cer- tainly augment the probable result by the example of in- creasing profits which the Black Sea would show to the Baltic, and by the general impulse to commerce from the action of this country under free trade. It is not to be overlooked that railways have been introduced into the countries North of the Bal'ie, into Sweden and Norway; and the internal rcsourccs of these countries are likely to be drawn forth at an accelerated rate. There are, tl:erc- fore, resident motives for stimulating the trade of the Baltic, ready to act with the external motives. And it is at such a juncture that the biigh'ing spirit is thwarted in the Northern Se, as it is removed ia the Southern.—A?'we- the Northern as it is ren)on,cd ii the




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