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LONDON LETTER. \.

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LONDON LETTER. lSPECIALLY WIRED, j [BY OUP. cmii CORRESPONDENT.] .tEs AT THE CARLTON-LORD SALISBURY'S PROGRAMME THE TORY POSITION THE UNIONIST ALLIA.CK-THH' Nb.XT HOME RULE » „— PROCEEDINGS IN PARLIAMENT—THE J NXW CABINET—ATTITUDE OF THK LIBERAL LEADERS. LONDON, Tuesday Night. Nothing in this world succeeds like success. To-day the Tories, as they came to their gather- ing place in Pall Mall, were received with quite all outburst of welcome, and the crowd, in its Harness of enthusiasm, with, perhaps, also a certain curiosity, crowded the steps of the Carlton in order to catch a glimpse of the celebrites of the hour. Demos is tyrannical and unceremonious, ad it was a curious thing to see noblemen and proud commoners compelled to give their names to the multitude before they could pass into the club. The Tories were, of course, in excellent, spirits, and received their leader Very enthusiastically. The proceeding's were not of long duration. The Marquis of Salisbury was able to assure the meeting that he had got satis- factory assurances of support from the Marquis ¡ of Harrington. He sketched out rapidly a scheme of local <" self-government for Ireland. This scheme would be brought in after consultation with Lord Hartington, and would accordingly have his support, and the plan of the Government was tc keep the House sitting on after the first meeting on the 5th of August until the Wiiole of supply was disposed of, and then there would be an adjournment, which Ntould last until next year, unless the state of Ireland demanded repressive legislation. After this the meeting dissolved itself into mutual admiration, and then it came to an end with a hearty endorsement of Lord Salisbury's programme. What does it mean ? First, the Tories are not Roing to let the Irish question drift, as some of their unwise and indiscreet supporters in the press have advised. They think that the opportunity in given for dealing with the question of local government on the narrow and restricted lines which recommend themselves to the Tories and the Hartingtonian Whigs. Certainly it will be possible for them to bring in a bill which will gain the support of the Tories and of the greater number of the Liberal dis- sentients, but will it pass ? It may be taken for granted that it will meet with the hostility of the Glasdtonian Liberals and of the Irish party, and it will have to be a very robust bill indeed which will survive the attacks ot these two oppositions. The course of the Government then will have to be the withdrawal ot the bill or its modification in some way as the original Reform Bill of 1867 was trans- formed into household suffrage. I do not think there is the smallest chance of either Mr Gladstone or Mr Parnell accepting any measure that stops short of a real assembly and a real executive. It is quite possible that by next February the Tories may have educated their Party so completely that they will be able to pro- duce a. bill giving these two essentials, and at the same time safeguarding in words the things they have sworn never to surrender. The Tories are in an advantageous position With regard to Mr Gladstone and the Parnellites, but it must be recollected that they are in a good Position with regard to another and an important and a very troublesome section also-that is the Irish Orangemen. Last time they were so Completely dependent on the Orangemen that It was altogether out of their power to stir even one step in the direction of self-government. The moment they did so they had to part company With the Orangemen, and they were in such a minority that they could not afford to lose even the small body of supporters that the Grange creed has had in the House. Now .they are independent of the Orange- men, and what a relief that must be to Lord Salisbury, who was doubtless the writer of many of those scathing attacks in which they were denounced in the old Saturday Review, and what a still greater relief it must be to Lord Randolph Churchill, who was so often snubbed by them in his struggling days, and "hose lieutenant, Sir John Gorst, once ePoke of them all as "reactionary Ulster Members." If the Orangemen now kick they can be told to go about their business, or to march lnto the same lobby as the Parnellites, and Prepare the way for a worse system of Holye -ftule than their own friends will impose upon them. It is, therefore, quite on the cards that the Home Rule Bill of Lord Salisbury will be of a more complete character than people now are inclined to forecast. Another argument in favour of this view is that is perhaps the last chance the Unionists will have of settling the question. Lord Salisbury is reported in all the accounts as having predicted a long tenure of office for his ministry. This is the kind of thing every leader is bound to say at the start Ofa campaign, but is it not obvious that if the Salisbury administration is to remain in existence for a lengthened period, It can only be by getting the Irish question out of the way in its very first session. The alliance between Tories and the Liberal Unionists could not stand that strain for more than a single session. The sleeping dogs will not sleep for 'nore than that time. In the extreme case of no foreign complication or domestic difficulty arriving, in which there would come the eternal antagonism of Tory and Liberal ideas, it is pretty clear that the Liberalism of the country would not stand the alliance for much longer, nor the Conservatism either for that Matter. As it is, a large number of Conservatives are grumbling at the seats which the Tories might have had, and which the Liberal Unionists have been allowed to take. For this reason I anticipate the Local Government 33ill, when it does come, will startle the Orange- men perhaps by the largeness of its proposals. If it should, on the other hand, startle Liberals by its meagreness, it will die of inanition. There Won't be enough life in it to save it from death by half a week's violent attack. As to the plan for the immediate future, Liberals have been prepared for this line by th6 leaders in the Times, which is now, of course, an inspired Tory organ. What the Tories want is tilQ> Their minds are doubtless a blank oIl the Irish question at the present nionient, and their desire is to have the opportunity of maturing a plan which Viid save them trom the many pitfalls that ate everywhere around. Their bill will have to be very carefully prepared indeed. First, it has to secure the supp"rt of a great different parties, for if it be not agreeable to the great majority of the dissentient Liberals as well as to the Tories, then it had I beiter not be brought in at all. Indeed, an attenipt will have to be made to compose it such materials as to get the approval of the bene .lent neutrality of Mr Ciianib3rli.il], for, though he is numerically extremely weak, a combination of hostility to the measure by Ijiu-i, Mr Gladstone, and Mr Parnell would seriously endanger its passing. Then there are the wild and extravagant pledges of the Tories during the campaign, and it will be far from easy to bring any bill within the four corners of these declarations and pledges. That is the reason for the proposal to go on with Supply. If the ministry be able to carry out their plans they will have money for the entire financial year, and it will not be necessary to come to parliament till February. But it is possible that this neat little plan Inay not come to maturity. I am not sure that Mr Gladstone or Mr Parnell will be inclined to give the Marquis of Salisbury a blank cheque for four months of practical despotism. It is needless to point out that if there be any desire to postpone the rise of Par iament, it can very easily be done. The estimates can be debated at considerable length in a perfectly legitimate spirit and manner. Indeed, in many respects the estimates ggt too little rather than too much discussion. Jobs lurk under hundreds of items, and if the whole subject were as thoroughly debated as it ought to be, millions might be saved to the country. Of course, it would be unwise and unnecessary to resort to obstruction or anything like it, but if the Tories are inclined to play tricks it is just as well to know that there are plenty of means ter checkmating them. As to the offices and their holders nothing whatever was said at the meeting. I believe the report in the Daily News this morning that Lord Randolph Churchill has obtained the leadership of the House of Commons is, to say the least of it, premature. It is known that Sir Michael Beach and Lord Ran- dolph Churchill to-day were in friendly conversation, and this would hardly be the case if the one man had been jockeyed out of his place by the other. It was also re- marked at the meeting that Sir Michael sat on the dais or platform, or whatever elevated position there was by the side of Lord Salisbury, while Lord Randolph Churchill was down in the body of the room among the other members. So much as to the Tories. Now as to the other side. I met to-day one of the out-going Govern- tnent. He had just come from Mr Gladstone. Always the same report. The old man is in splendid spirits. What is the reason?" I asked. Is it purely physical?" "Partly that," was the reply, "but also because he sees the condition in which his enemies are." This was cheering. The next answer was more so. "What shall I write to the country about you ? I asked. "Say that we are full of fight."

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